In a note to clients, the analysts said their presidential models show that Harris’ probability of emerging victorious stands at 56%, with the vice president garnering 303 of an available 538 Electoral College votes.
A simple majority of 270 or more is needed to win, and current polling suggests that much of the outcome will be determined by a handful of so-called swing states.
Over the last month, Harris’ odds have increased in 21 states, including the important battleground state of Arizona, the analysts added. However, they flagged that her chances of winning the key swing state of Michigan have decreased since August.
They noted that while Arizona is the only toss-up state where the local economy is growing faster than the national average, Michigan’s activity levels have “effectively fallen into contraction.”
Other coincident indices — which provide a rough gauge of general economic conditions — modeled by BCA Research also decelerated in the swing states of Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada. Such falling momentum in these hotly-contested states ensures that the presidential race will “excruciatingly close” as the Nov. 5 vote approaches, the analysts said.
“[Democrats] are facing growing pressure from the economy,” they added.
The analysts argued that “it is important to monitor” whether a recent outsized 50-basis point interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve prevents the economy from “cooling too fast.” So far, the cut has served to boost the stock market, “creating positive vibes that support the ruling [Democratic] party,” although that could still change in October, the analysts said.
“If the economy goes south despite the recent rate cut, [Republicans] could pull off a comeback by November,” they said.
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