Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY
target yield
target
Goldman Sachs 4.00% 1.12 145 7.05
5,600
Morgan Stanley 1 140 7.5
5,400(for
June 2025)
UBS Global 5,200 3.85% 1.09 148 7.25
Wealth
Management*
Wells Fargo 5,100-5,300 4.25-4.75% 1.06-1.10 156-160
Investment
Institute
Barclays 5,300 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20
J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.25
BofA Global 5,400 4.25% 1.12 155 7.45
Research
Deutsche Bank 5,500 4.60% 1.07 135
Citigroup 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25
5,600
HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 145 7.10
Oppenheimer
5,500
UBS Global 5,600 4.0% 1.05 160 7.15
Research*
Evercore ISI 6,000
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
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U.S. INFLATION
U.S. consumer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in May amid cheaper gasoline, but inflation likely remains too high for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates before September against the backdrop of a persistently strong labor market.
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)
Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.50% 2.5%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%
Wells Fargo 3.0% 2.60%
Investment
Institute
Barclays 2.70% 2.4%
J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%
BofA Global 3.5% 2.8%
Research
Deutsche Bank 3.10%
Citigroup 2.0% 3.0%
HSBC 3.4%
—–
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 2.7% 5.0% 0.8% 0.9% 6.6%
Sachs
2.2%
Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS Global 3.1% 2.4% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%
Wealth
Management*
Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2%
J.P.Morgan 5.2%
0.8%
2.6% 2.2% 0.9% 6.5%
BofA Global 3.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.6% 5.8%
Research
0.7%
Deutsche 3.2% 2.4% 5.2% 0.9% 0.8% 7.0%
Bank
Citigroup 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% -0.2% 0.1% 6.3%
HSBC 2.6% 2.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.4% 6.3%
UBS Global 3.1% 2.3% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%
Research*
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