BANGKOK (Reuters) – Thailand’s central bank left its key interest rate unchanged for a fourth straight meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected, despite public calls by the government to reduce borrowing costs to help revive Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
The Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) monetary policy committee took a more hawkish position, voting 6-1 to hold the one-day repurchase rate at 2.50%. One member voted for a 25 basis point rate cut.
“The majority of the Committee deems that the current policy interest rate is consistent with the economy converging to its potential, as well as conducive to safeguarding macro-financial stability,” the BOT said in a statement.
All but three of 27 economists in a Reuters poll had expected the BOT to keep the rate unchanged on Wednesday. The three economists had predicted a quarter-point cut.
Earlier on Wednesday, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said he was hoping for a rate cut, repeating his call for lower rates to help revive the economy, which has lagged regional peers as it faces high household debt as well as sluggish exports.
However, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said last month he was more worried about people’s access to credit than interest rates. He said the government is aiming for at least 3% growth this year.
BOT’s assistant governor Piti Disyatat said the key rate was neutral as the economy was growing to its potential.
“Rates are not too high and in line with the economy and inflation,” he told a news conference. The next BOT policy review is on Aug. 21.
Kasikornbank said it expected the policy rate to remain on hold for the rest of year because inflation had bottomed out.
Capital Economic predicts a rate cut at the BOT’s October’s meeting. “We think the weakness of the economy and very low inflation will persuade the central bank to loosen policy later in the year.”
The BOT raised its key rate by 200 basis points to 2.50% over eight meetings between August 2022 and September 2023, taking it to the highest level in more than a decade, and has held it steady since then.
The economy expanded 1.9% last year, with average annual growth at 1.73% over the past decade.
The central bank maintained its forecasts for 2.6% GDP growth in 2024 and for 3.0% growth in 2025.
The economy is expected grow more than 2% in the second quarter, Piti said, adding that third quarter growth would be close to 3% and 4% in the final quarter.
Headline consumer inflation in May returned to the BOT’s target range of 1% to 3% for the first time in a year.
The central bank was not worried about inflation and its target range was still in line with economic fundamentals, Piti said.
The BOT maintained its headline inflation forecast for 2024 at 0.6%, and slightly lowered its core inflation forecast to 0.5%, from 0.6% seen earlier.
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