TOKYO (Reuters) -Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will scrutinise various data ahead its rate review next month, and “seriously” take into account the impact yen moves could have on the economic and price outlook.
In an appearance closely watched by markets for clues on whether the BOJ could hike interest rates next month, Ueda said the central bank will reach a decision “meeting by meeting” on the basis of information that becomes available.
“There’s still a month to go” until the BOJ’s next meeting in December, Ueda said. “Vast amount of data and information will become available between now and then,” he said on Thursday at an Europlace Financial Forum in Tokyo.
The remarks, which followed those on Monday highlighting Japan’s progress in achieving wages-driven inflation, caused a jump in the yen and Japanese bond yields as markets interpreted them as signalling the chance of a rate hike next month.
The yen’s renewed declines, which push up import costs and inflation, have already led some market players to bet the BOJ could hike rates as soon as its Dec. 18-19 policy meeting.
“We do seriously take into account exchange-rate movements in forming our economic and inflation outlook including the question of what’s causing the exchange-rate changes that are taking place at the moment,” Ueda said, when asked about the impact of currency moves.
The dollar fell 0.47% to 154.65 yen and the yield on the 5-year Japanese government bond (JGB) rose 4 basis points to 0.75%, the highest since June 2009, after the remarks.
Ueda did not make remarks on monetary policy in a prepared speech delivered at the forum, which focused on how technological innovation could create financial system risks.
The BOJ ended negative interest rates in March and raised its short-term policy rate to 0.25% in July on the view Japan was on the cusp of durably achieving its 2% inflation target.
Ueda has signalled the bank’s readiness to raise rates again if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast.
The weak yen was among the factors that led to the BOJ’s decision to raise interest rates in July. Since then, analysts see yen moves as a key trigger for further rate hikes.
The dollar’s recent rally, caused in part by market expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed inflationary policies could prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates too much, has pressured the yen lower.
Ueda said it was too hard to predict how Trump’s policies could affect Japan’s economy.
“As soon as the new administration announces new set of policies, we would like to incorporate into our economic outlook,” Ueda said.
A Reuters poll conducted on Oct. 3-11 showed a slim majority of economists projecting the BOJ to forgo raising rates this year, although nearly 90% expect rates to increase by March.
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