Although he acknowledged that Trump’s plans to slash taxes and impose harsh tariffs on US imports will be considered, Powell flagged that it could take some time before officials have enough clarity to gauge the impact of these policy changes on their calibration of interest rates.
In order to gauge how officials may assess the election outcome at their final gathering of the year next month, analysts at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) led by Matthew Luzzetti scoured through the minutes of the meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee in December 2016 — one month after Trump was first elected to the White House.
They said that meeting had a “number of parallels to this year, with President Trump set to take the White House and promising dramatic shifts in the economic policy landscape.”
The December 2016 meeting had a clear focus on fiscal policies, the analysts said, with the Fed largely anticipating a more expansionary stance at the time. Although there was significant uncertainty around the “timing and form” of fiscal and trade policies, they noted that “about half” of Fed officials began factoring in these changes to their baseline rate outlooks. Almost all, meanwhile, said the risks tilted towards stronger growth and “many” saw this as “potentially necessitating somewhat tighter monetary policy than currently anticipated.”
Some economists have speculated that Trump’s proposals, especially the blanket import levies, could drive up inflation and lead the Fed to leave rates at a higher level than initially anticipated. This uptick in volatility may exacerbate the possibility of a clash between the Fed and the new Trump administration, the Wall Street Journal said.
Last week, Powell flatly rejected notions that Trump could dismiss him from his post, telling reporters that he would not resign if asked to by the upcoming administration. Powell would also likely lodge a legal challenge to any attempt to oust him before his term comes to a close, the WSJ reported.
For his part, Trump has not recently indicated any plans to try to force out Powell, saying in June that he would allow Powell to serve out the remainder of his term “especially if I thought he was doing the right thing.” Trump’s advisers are split on how far he should take the matter, the WSJ said.
Meanwhile, any alterations in the makeup of the Fed may threaten to disrupt an ongoing bid by policymakers to defeat inflation without sparking a meltdown in the wider economy or labor demand. The Fed has described economic activity as on a “solid pace.”
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