The peso dropped as low as 20.8038 per dollar for the first time since August 2022, more than 3% weaker than its previous close – the biggest such tumble since Mexico’s election in summer roiled domestic assets. While emerging market currencies suffered broadly against a soaring dollar, the peso chalked up some of the biggest losses.
“The Mexican peso has been hit hard,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING. “High volatility is also undermining the carry trade and it’s hard to rule out a move to 22.00 over coming weeks.”
After Trump’s 2016 presidential victory, the peso plummeted around 8.5% on the dollar to a then-historic low.
The U.S. currency’s climb began after very early indications of a Republican win in Georgia and continued to gathered pace, with the dollar index hitting a four-month peak.
Markets had been fretting that the United States’ southern neighbour could face trade barriers under a possible Trump presidency.
Turner said 2025 could be a “rough year for the peso” if presumed president Trump would question the renewal of the USMCA at its review in 2026. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is the trade pact that took effect in 2020.
Immigration, as well as remittances, from Mexico to the U.S. are expected to be other flash points.
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