The survey reveals that Trump leads Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, reversing Harris’s 2-point lead from the Journal’s August poll, which also included third-party candidates. Both results remain within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the race is still highly competitive.
The change in voter sentiment appears to be driven by a barrage of negative advertising and the candidates’ performances during the campaign.
These factors have diminished some of the positive views of Harris, who initially gained favor after replacing President Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee. However, voter perception of her has soured, with unfavorable views now outweighing favorable ones by 8 percentage points, 53% to 45%.
Harris’s job approval as vice president has also hit a low, with only 42% approving of her performance while 54% disapprove.
On the other hand, Trump’s public image has improved, with voters recalling his presidency more favorably than at any other time during the election cycle. He now holds a positive job approval rating, with 52% approving and 48% disapproving of his time in office—a sharp contrast to Harris’s 12-point negative rating.
The poll comes as both campaigns pour resources into advertising, with a particular focus on shaping Harris’s image, given that many voters are still forming their opinion of her.
Trump, on the other hand, is benefitting from his established record, as voters tend to view his economic policies more positively than Harris’s. By a 10-point margin, more voters favor Trump’s economic plan, while Harris’s economic agenda garners more negative views than positive ones, by 4 points.
“Voters are finally getting to know her,” said Republican pollster David Lee, who conducted the survey alongside Democratic pollster Michael Bocian.
“The definitional period is coming to an end, and more people are unhappy with what they have learned about her than what they know about President Trump.” Lee, who also works with the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc., believes this trend will be crucial as the race continues.
While Trump and Harris are both striving to energize their bases, turnout could play a decisive role in the election.
According to the poll, 74% of Black voters—who largely support Harris—say they are certain to vote, compared with 81% of white voters, who generally favor Trump. Trump faces a particular challenge in motivating young men who lean toward him but show less enthusiasm for voting, while young women, who lean toward Harris, are more likely to turn out.
Bocian noted that Trump is still viewed as “too extreme” by many voters, a label 49% assign to him, compared to 39% for Harris. Harris also retains an advantage on key issues such as abortion, where she is seen as the stronger candidate. Furthermore, she holds a slight edge in being perceived as the better advocate for the middle class.
“If she can succeed in making this campaign about those images and issues first and foremost, while also continuing to make the case for who’s the best fighter for the middle class, she can win a very close race,” Bocian said.
Trump, meanwhile, has expanded his lead over Harris on handling economic issues, with a 12-point advantage, up from 8 points in August. He also leads Harris on immigration by 15 points, an increase from 7 points two months ago.
Despite his gains, Trump still faces challenges. More voters see him as a threat to the country, with 48% saying so compared to 43% for Harris.
Trump also leads Harris by 10 points on having the right experience and the ability to bring change. However, Harris holds an advantage in temperament, with more voters viewing her as better suited for the role and “mentally up for the job.” Additionally, by a 13-point margin, voters described Trump as “unstable” more often than Harris.
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