Following a webinar with election analyst Charlie Cook, the firm noted that the race remains extremely tight, with polls showing it as “essentially a jump ball.”
However, “the polls have moved a bit in Trump’s direction,” Piper Sandler wrote, prompting them to raise Trump’s chances of winning from 50% to 55%.
“It no longer looks like a pure even-money bet,” stated Piper Sandler.
The analysts also adjusted their odds for the House of Representatives, explaining that “the marginal seat in the House is likely to go the way of the White House.”
As a result, they increased their odds of a Republican takeover of the House from 50% to 55%.
Piper Sandler now views a GOP sweep as the most likely outcome, raising those odds to 45%.
“The next most likely outcome is a Harris win with a GOP Senate (35%),” the firm noted. A Democratic sweep, on the other hand, was downgraded to just a 10% chance.
“A Democratic sweep would only happen if Harris were to win comfortably,” said Piper Sandler, but that scenario is now “becoming a true long shot.”
The firm also acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the election, cautioning that “there isn’t enough data or evidence for investors to have a strong view how this turns out and make big bets on the election.”
In conclusion, Piper Sandler wrote that while divided government with Trump in the White House feels more likely than their 10% projection suggests, “roughly one-in-five odds of Trump with divided government (conditional on him winning) strikes us as about right.”
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