They have noted moves in financial markets, with some indicators reflecting growing investor sentiment favoring Trump.
According to Piper Sandler, a “small shift in the polls toward Donald Trump has had an outsized impact on investor sentiment.”
Their analysis shows more investors leaning toward the idea of a Trump victory and a potential GOP sweep.
Betting markets are also reflecting this shift, with Piper Sandler noting the Polymarket odds moving to 60-40 in favor of Trump, and PredictIt now showing Trump with a slight lead after being tied just days ago.
The firm said, “The shift in sentiment has resulted in a bid for Trump stocks,” with their Trump-themed portfolio outperforming one aligned with Kamala Harris.
The biggest winners so far have been GEO Group, while solar and electric vehicle (EV) stocks have taken a hit.
Gavekal Research added weight to the argument, observing that “polls in six of the seven most important swing states” now show Trump with an edge.
Wisconsin is said to remain the only outlier. Gavekal suggests that market behavior in recent days could reflect this potential shift in political outcomes.
They argue that financial markets may be “pricing in a Trump victory, and perhaps even a ‘red sweep'” of both the presidency and Congress.
Both firms emphasize that while momentum has tilted toward Trump, the race is still highly uncertain. Piper Sandler describes it as “a jump ball, with momentum moving incrementally toward Trump.”
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