Recent polling data has indicated that Trump’s Democratic rival Kamala Harris has seen an uptick in favorability with likely voters following a closely-monitored debate between the two earlier this month.
However, in a note to clients over the weekend, the BTIG analysts said that “fundamental factors” currently support Trump’s bid, including the outlook for the all-important Electoral College.
Both candidates require a tally of at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. At the moment, Trump and Harris look all but certain to secure around 200 of these votes, meaning a handful of battleground states — such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia — will play decisive roles in the outcome of the ballot.
The BTIG analysts said their research into state-level polling data indicates that Trump maintains a lead on the “the two issues that matter most to voters: the economy and immigration.”
Yet they noted that Harris is showing signs that she is “closing the gap” with Trump on the economy in particular, saying that they now expect her campaign to focus “intently” on its plans for housing affodability and childcare costs in a bid to woo voters.
“Meanwhile, Harris has maintained her lead on the other issues that rank slightly below [the economy and immigration] in ranking by swing state voters: abortion, healthcare, democracy, and senior services,” they added.
Weeks remain before November’s vote, leading pollsters to flag that the opinion figures could still change. The BTIG analysts added that swing state polls are also well within the margin of error.
As of now, the analysts said their highest conviction view is that the Republicans will take control of the Senate, the upper chamber of the US Congress. But they warned that any of their political prognostications must come with “a healthy serving of humility.”
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