With just over six weeks to go until Election Day, the poll shows Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 5 points among registered voters, 49% to 44%. While the margin of error means the race remains tight, this marks a notable change from July’s poll, when Trump held a 2-point advantage prior to President Joe Biden’s departure from the race.
When third-party candidates are included, Harris extends her lead over Trump to 6 points, with a 47% to 41% advantage.
Harris’ favorability has risen by 16 points since July, representing the largest improvement for any political figure in NBC News polling since George W. Bush’s surge in popularity following the 9/11 attacks. She is now viewed more positively than Trump in terms of competence, effectiveness, and overall health—qualities Trump led on when he was matched against Biden.
With an electorate largely dissatisfied with the direction of the country, Harris has emerged as the candidate better positioned to represent change and to steer the nation in a positive direction.
“In July, there was a stiff breeze heading directly at President Biden and obscuring a clear path to victory. Today, the winds have turned in Kamala Harris’ favor,” said pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
Still, Trump continues to hold advantages on key issues like the economy and inflation, though these leads have narrowed since Biden’s withdrawal. Two-thirds of voters say their family income is not keeping up with the cost of living, and they rate this issue as their top election concern.
The poll also suggests that some of Trump’s decline in support comes from Republicans who are not firmly aligned with him but could potentially return to his side, as they did in previous elections.
The new NBC News poll, conducted from September 13-17, follows two pivotal months in U.S. politics, which included President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race on July 21, two party conventions, the selection of vice-presidential candidates, an assassination attempt on Donald Trump in July and another attempt two months later, as well as the first — and potentially only — debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
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