1. Futures point higher
US stock futures were higher on Tuesday as investors prepared for this week’s hotly-anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision (more below).
By 03:36 ET (07:36 GMT), the Dow futures contract had added 46 points or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had gained 8 points or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had risen by 54 points or 0.3%.
The benchmark S&P 500 ended the prior session slightly higher, while a dip in technology names dragged the Nasdaq Composite lower, halting a five-day streak of positive gains. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was a particular laggard, shedding 2.8% following a warning from analysts at TF International Securities that demand for the latest iPhone 16 models was more tepid than estimated. The note in turn weighed on shares in chipmakers like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO).
2. Fed rate cut scale in focus
Fed officials are set to begin a crucial two-day gathering on Tuesday that is likely to conclude with an eagerly-awaited — and heavily debated — reduction in interest rates.
With a cut priced in by markets, much of the conversation has centered around the scope of September’s decision.
According to the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool, the odds of a super-sized 50-basis point cut this week — rather than a more traditional 25-basis point drawdown — currently stand at 67%.
Heading into last weekend, the chances were even, but bets for a jumbo cut were bolstered by media reports suggesting that such a reduction was still an option. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley also argued that a bumper cut was needed because short-term interest rates are “far above” a neutral level that neither helps nor hinders economic activity, a belief he reiterated on Monday.
Analysts at ING said in a note to clients that markets may be pushing the pricing for the Fed’s cut closer to 50 basis points “in an attempt to influence” policymakers. In any event, they expect the decision will be a “close call.”
3. Intel foundry inks custom chip deal with Amazon
Shares in Intel surged in extended hours trading after the US semiconductor group said that its contract manufacturing unit had signed a deal to make custom artificial intelligence chips for Amazon’s cloud division.
Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger said the “multi-billion” dollar agreement, which broadens an existing strategic partnership between the firms, “reflects the strength of our process technology” and will “unleash innovation across our shared ecosystem and support the growth of both businesses.”
It was a win for Gelsinger, who is attempting to stem recently disappointing returns by focusing Intel on its foundry, or a manufacturer that makes chips for outside companies.
The deal was accompanied by a raft of other announcements revolving around efforts by Intel to achieve $10 billion in savings following a period of weak demand and mounting losses. Along with previously revealed plans to reduce headcount and suspend its dividend, the company said it will halt construction on two projects in Europe and offload part of its stake in Altera Corp.
Earlier on Monday, Intel said it is eligible for as much as $3 billion in funding from the US government to manufacture chips with military applications. Shares rose by 6.4% in normal trading.
4. Microsoft hikes dividend, approves share buyback plan
Microsoft said on Monday that its board had approved a new share buyback program worth up to $60 billion and raised its dividend, as the tech giant looks to return cash to shareholders following a string of solid AI-driven earnings.
The Redmond, Washington-based group’s buyback program replaces its prior one initiated in 2021. Meanwhile, it declared a quarterly dividend of $0.83 per share, up 10% from the prior quarter.
Shares in the company were slightly higher in extended hours trading.
Microsoft previously clocked double-digit quarterly sales and earnings growth in July, although this was offset by a substantial increase in capital expenditures linked to the firm’s AI investments.
5. Oil ticks up
Crude prices pushed higher Tuesday on continued disruption to U.S. output in the wake of Hurricane Francine, ahead of the latest reading of the country’s crude stockpiles.
By 03:37 ET, the Brent contract gained 0.3% to $72.97 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded 0.4% higher at $69.32 per barrel.
Both contracts settled higher on Monday in the aftermath of the latest hurricane to impact the key Gulf of Mexico crude-producing region, and as traders awaited the potential start of an easing cycle by the Federal Reserve.
More than 12% of crude production and 16% of natural gas output in the US Gulf of Mexico remained offline, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement on Monday.
The American Petroleum Institute is set to reveal its weekly inventory data later in the session, ahead of the official figures on Wednesday, and traders are expecting another drop in US crude stockpiles.
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