According to the investment bank’s policy researchers, the election is currently too close to call, with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each having a 50% chance of winning the White House. The markets, which had begun pricing in a Trump victory after the June debate, have since adjusted to reflect the uncertainty.
Harris, who has gained momentum since launching her campaign, has been able to run a largely content-free campaign, avoiding detailed policy discussions. However, Piper Sandler notes that this strategy is unlikely to hold as the election approaches, predicting that Harris will eventually be forced to address substantive issues.
This, according to {{0|Piper Sandler}
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“Our hunch is those weaknesses will keep the race close, which is why we put the White House in the jump ball category,” researchers wrote.
In terms of Congressional outcomes, {{0|Piper Sandler}
}’s analysis indicates a 40% likelihood of a GOP sweep, with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate and likely taking the House if Trump wins, even by a narrow margin.
In contrast, if Harris wins, there’s a 35% chance of a divided government, where she would need to compromise with a Republican-controlled Congress to pass legislation.
The possibility of a Democratic sweep is seen as a long shot, with only a 15% chance, given the challenges Democrats face in holding onto key Senate seats.
Meanwhile, the likelihood of Trump winning with a divided government sits at just 10%.
“Trump would most likely have the ability to advance a GOP legislative agenda if he wins (even narrowly) but if Harris wins most likely she would have to compromise with Republicans to move legislation,” {{0|Piper Sandler}
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Researchers said the recent period has been challenging for the former president, describing it as “the worst few weeks of his campaign.”
“He has rarely been a disciplined campaigner, but the last few weeks we’ve seen Trump’s typical narcissism without the self-confidence,” they wrote, adding that he has been making “pro forma generic (and unpersuasive) attacks” on Harris and Walz.
“He has never looked so off balance in all his time in politics.”
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