Historically, election year drawdowns for the S&P 500 have averaged 13.4% since 1952. As of August 5, the S&P 500 was down 8.5%, which is within the typical range but still below the average.
The NASDAQ, on the other hand, has seen a 13.1% decline, also below its election year average of 21.2%.
The note had previously flagged support levels for the S&P 500 at 5190 and the NASDAQ at 16500. These levels have been breached, suggesting that further declines could test the April lows of 4954 for the S&P 500 and 15223 for the NASDAQ, corresponding to corrections of 12.6% and 18.4%, respectively.
The market’s trajectory and recent selloff echo historical patterns, particularly the 1968 election year, marked by political and geopolitical turmoil. While the comparison to 1987 has been considered, the current market is less extended, with the S&P 500 up 18.8% at its peak this year compared to over 35% at this point in 1987.
August through October is traditionally a weak period for the market, and strategists believe the recent action aligns with seasonal weakness. While this pullback may seem overdue, it is likely not finished, with the possibility of continued struggles leading up to the election.
However, history offers a silver lining: since 1952, there have been only two losses in the final seven months of election years, suggesting that while volatility may persist, the year could still end on a positive note.
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