The Swiss bank had previously judged that the Monetary Policy Committee’s change in forward guidance, at its meeting on May 9, which opened the door for rate cuts, and the expected decline in May inflation close to 2% would allow the BoE to deliver the first 25 bps rate cut in June.
However, subsequent labor market and inflation data have on balance disappointed, the bank said.
“In particular, UK April CPI inflation declined by 0.9pp to 2.3% y/y, a smaller-than-expected decline with services inflation at 5.9% y/y (vs the BoE’s projection of 5.5% y/y) as the key disappointment,” analysts at UBS said, in a note dated June 11.
Besides the data, we think that the recent political developments in the U.K. have also reduced the likelihood of a BoE cut in June.
“We think that Prime Minister Sunak’s call for general elections on 4 July does not have immediate implications for the BoE policy outlook, given the Bank’s operational independence considerations,” said UBS. “However, the BoE’s decision to cancel all speeches and public statements until after the election suggests the Bank’s cautious approach in this regard.”
Against this backdrop, we now think that the MPC will delay the first cut until the start of August (i.e. until after the election). However, with the May CPI out on 19 June, a day before the BoE meeting, we acknowledge some risk to our call.
The June meeting will not be accompanied by new projections or a press conference, UBS said, and thus we expect the MPC’s forward guidance and the split of the MPC vote (7-2) to remain unchanged, signaling no major change in the assessment compared to the previous meeting.
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